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STOCK: UWTI

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1 STOCK: UWTI on Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:30 am

Thread for UWTI

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2 UGAZ and Decay on Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:11 am

I have not calculated the decay on UGAZ, but I am concerned about it...I have owned many shares of the ETN for a long time now and while I fully expect that the price will rise and I will get my money back.....the duration of the delay has two important impacts....the spot price for gas will have to be much higher for me to get back to the same UGAZ price and I have missed so many other plays while my money has been tied up...... still....I'm looking for brighter days soon!

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3 Decay again on Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:23 am

I just looked a the price of uwti and wti......uwti was quoted at 3.65...and WTI was 59.11
Last time uwti was 3.65 was jan 6 and the price of oil was 50.00.....so significant difference...

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4 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:01 am

Decay/reverse of decay for UWTI and UGAZ can work for and against you as well. This is my take and I'm not sure it is exactly accurate, but I wanted to post it for your comments:

My understanding is that when velocity shares ETN's go up or down on successive days, they "theoretically" will go up or down at more than 3x the rate of the underlying index.

For example, let's say the spot price of oil goes up 3% for 5 days in a row. Then after 5 days, oil would have gained (1.03^5-1) = 15.92% When that happens, UWTI goes up 3x 3% each day, or 9% per day, so (1.09^5-1) =53.86%. So over the 5 days, oil went up 15.92% and UWTI went up 53.98%. 53.98/15.92=3.38x, which is actually more than 3x.

The same is true when they go down on successive days: Let's say the spot price of gas goes down 2% per day for 10 days in a row for a total drop of (1.02^10)-1 = 21.9%. Then UGAZ would go down 6% per day for 10 days in a row or (1.06^10-1) = 79.1%. 79.1/21.9 = 3.6x, instead of 3x. When they go up and down, up and down, it depends on what those up and down movements are.

That said, the ETN's also do have some heavy costs as well, so they will never go up or down exactly 3% per day. More like 2.98% or something like that.

Your best bet is to hope that you are on the side of the short/long term trends, depending on your horizon. Ultimate goal would be to buy at the bottom and ride it up.

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5 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:06 am

It appears in the case of UWTI, the combination of ups and downs in that case resulted in an overall decay. But oil goes higher, say $70 in the next month, I think you might see the opposite effect.

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6 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:00 am

I believe the only time that the reverse of decay is true relates to the overall market for the ETN base asset is in your favor...if the market is in Contango, meaning that the futures contract prices are above the current spot price....then decay is working against you.....in addition to the overall fees and daily rebalancing....

But, if the market is in Backwardation, then the future prices are below the spot price and the ETN benefits when rolling over contracts....

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7 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:19 am

Yipes, look at DWTI on those same dates.

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8 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed May 27, 2015 7:06 am

Been eyeing oil....the look of the chart suggests that oil is rolling over and gonna dive....UWTI at 3.22 looks pretty attractive by recent price...but I remember 1.70s.....still, if I didn't have a lot of my cash in swing trade stocks now, I'd be pretty interested in buying at something about 3.20.... thoughts on where its going and entry point targets, hypothetically or otherwise?

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9 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed May 27, 2015 7:18 am

I'm waiting until lower, maybe $54 oil. I doubt it gets that low though, but if it hits that, I'll buy a small position, then buy again if it goes sub $50. But I can see buying anything below $60 with summer and gas usage coming. Heck, looking at the longer term oil charts, anything below $90 is a good buy.

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10 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed May 27, 2015 7:34 am

I have a 500s limit order in at 3.17....
Should have been paying attention....that would have filled yesterday....

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11 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed May 27, 2015 8:34 am

Looks like oil still going down. You may get in even lower with some luck.

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12 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed May 27, 2015 2:19 pm

Did get in at 3.17 and characteristically that was .07 too soon by the low of the day.....
I have another buy in for 3.01 which could happen....

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13 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Fri May 29, 2015 1:31 pm

You should be doing pretty good! Maybe not a ton of shares, but good percentage gain anyways. UWTI 3.54 as I'm typing.

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14 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Fri May 29, 2015 4:47 pm

Yeah...damn, wasn't tending the nest today...went golfing with my brother and wife...
Had a sell order in for 3.62 (on a whim) and it reached there, but didn't execute on my end.
Also had a buy in for UGAZ for 1.87 and it got to 1.88....would have helped my ave. a bunch....oh will...may go lower Monday...and I do have orders in AH now, but nothing seems ever to shake in AH, especially Friday...
Have a good weekend!!!

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15 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:04 pm

Bought 500s uwti on the 4th at 3.20 and missed another buy at 2.96 by a penny....still, held on until today when I sold my position for 3.57 in AH.....came in from working in the yard to find it much higher than close...so I jumped on it for $170 clear....bringing this day to $1412 net...my second best day ever. Brings my return to 26% YTD...my wife is happy....out to dinner for steak tonight!!!

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16 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:12 pm

Took a 1000s position this a.m. at 3.27....one of the first times for me that it went up from there....knock wood.

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17 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:25 pm

Yep, I'm starting to eye oil a little too. Looking attractive for a starter position. .

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18 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:06 pm

Took a starter postion 500 shares at 3.35. Will add 750 shares at $3 or sell the 500 shares at 3.70, whichever comes first.

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19 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:07 pm

now I'm in oil, natural gas, gold, and silver all at the same time!

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20 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:11 pm

Diversification! Fun!
I'm in 3 out of 4....pissed away some good gains in both UW and UG this morning....but didn't hit my targets, so I passed. I have them set still on both the sell and buy sides.

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21 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:39 pm

Sold off my oil as part of my $3,000 to $1,000,000 experiment (from 3.35 to 3.60, 500 shares):

http://10gm.forumotion.com/t64-running-an-experiment-with-a-3000-account-on-tradeking

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22 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:20 pm

In today for 1000s at 3.36.....looking for a sell of 3.58 tomorrow.... or another buy of 1500 at 3.12

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23 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:13 am

In today for another 1300s at 2.19 total..... 2300s at 2.27 ave.

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24 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:25 am

Just for good measure, bought a starter postion 750 shares at $3.235. Looking for a nice $0.35-$0.50 move or so.

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25 Re: STOCK: UWTI on Sat Jun 27, 2015 1:40 pm

With both Uw and Ug, I have have had a tendency to leave money on the table...meaning...had a profit in hand....but, not as much as I wanted....so I let it go....usually for only a few cents. I just find it hard to sell 2000s for a $180 profit...always want $250 or more...

Has caused me to begin thinking about 'inventory turns'.....thinking of my on-hand investment $$$, transaction fees, number and size of positions(aggregate investment), and settlement times...trying to think of how rational it is to buy and sell positions for various amounts.....may do some research into this...I have a feeling its complicated, but that someone has already done the work on it....

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