10GreedyMen.com

Official Forum for the Ten Greedy Men trading group


You are not connected. Please login or register

TGMBFS Discussion Thread

Go to page : 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down  Message [Page 1 of 4]

1 TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 07, 2015 3:03 pm

Please place any questions or comments concerning the TGMBFS here.

Information on the TGMBFS is located here: http://10gm.forumotion.com/t35-tgm-sp-500-bottom-feeders-system

View user profile

2 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Fri May 08, 2015 6:57 am

If you need some stocks to invest in that aren't in the TGMBFS main thread, try WYNN and GMCR. These are still active in the historical thread and are still coming up in the scans.

View user profile

3 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Fri May 08, 2015 9:34 am

System trade result: WFM trade executed at 43.26, 115 shares.

View user profile

4 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Fri May 08, 2015 11:12 am

MU popping in and out of the scan all morning. Possible candidate for Monday's open. Will post orders in main thread depending on how it closes today.

View user profile

5 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 09, 2015 5:58 am

A few more candidates not yet making the cut, but getting close:

AMAT, XRX, DISKA

View user profile

6 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 09, 2015 6:00 am

MU didn't quite make it yet.

View user profile

7 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon May 11, 2015 10:37 am

PXD popping in and out on the scan.

View user profile

8 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon May 11, 2015 11:25 am

Same with NBL. Hopefully, will have a new pick or 2 at the end of the day.

View user profile

9 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon May 11, 2015 7:33 pm

PXD triggered. See the main system thread.

View user profile

10 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Tue May 12, 2015 3:40 pm

Watch list:

XRX and AMAT need to drop a little less than 3% to meet the requirements to be in the TGMBFS portfolio.  
MU and NBL need less than a 1% drop.

View user profile

11 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 14, 2015 12:37 pm

"So the BFS is agnostic to industry right? I have been shying away from energy and utilities stocks in my scanning....both seem to represent anomalies in the market. Energy because of current external pressures....a case could be made to buy all energy stocks in this depressed circumstance....Utilities because they are a semi-regulated environment. Any thoughts on whether the 'system' should operate the same on those stocks as well as any other industry?"

Correct, the system is dumb to the industry. A follower of the system may decide to exclude certain stocks or industries or to diversify by choosing only one stock per industry or sector. But the system doesn't have the benefit of being human and getting to pick and choose - which actually might be a good thing by automatically using sector rotation - buying the depressed industries and selling when they start thriving again.

View user profile

12 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 14, 2015 12:53 pm

MU and HOG on the watchlist.

View user profile

13 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 14, 2015 7:04 pm

As a system improvement, initial buy orders will no longer be stated as follows:

Buy IBM at tomorrow's open.

From now on, they will be stated as follows:

IBM(1) Set limit order to buy at $150.

This means that you will use a limit order to buy IBM at $150 or less.  This improvement is to prevent large 5% or more gap-ups in the afterhours or premarket and fits the syntax of the system better as well.

View user profile

14 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 14, 2015 7:16 pm

HOG and MU triggered as buys.  Will post in the main system thread for exact orders later tonight after I run through my spreadsheet. Starting to actually build a portfolio here with 5 active TGMBFS stocks.

View user profile

15 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 16, 2015 9:13 am

So far, returns of the TGMBFS are pretty much following along with the S&P 500 index. But it is has only been about a week or so. My opinion is that in the coming week that the system will start to take off while the S&P 500 stagnates a little. The goal of the system is that we are bottom feeding, and sometimes it takes a couple of weeks for the "bottoming" to start to turn up.

View user profile

16 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 16, 2015 9:29 am

Also wanted to note that my entry prices on the system picks are pretty much based on my brokerage speed at open. I'm usually off by a few cents here or there from the actually opening price, but splitting hairs. If the consensus is to use actual opening prices, I can switch over if desired. I decided to go with my actual purchase price to show what would happen in real life with limit orders at open.

View user profile

17 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 16, 2015 2:04 pm

For the record, doing some software backtesting this weekend the TGMBFS performed terribly during 2008 - I don't have the exact numbers since it is backtest labor intensive (can only get simplified version numbers), but appears to be approximately -50% - yipes.  It appears that the system would be well served with some sort of overall market indicator (green light, red light system) for instance. 

Interestingly, removing the 50% stop loss completely improves the result to -30%, which still beats the S&P 500 index.   Removing those market crash whipsaws appears key.  Also, removing the stop loss completely improves the results during up markets as well - it absolutely never triggers anyways, so might be pointless.  Sounds like an improvement may be on the way.

View user profile

18 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 16, 2015 2:21 pm

It is official:  The TGMBFS will no longer be using any stop loss criteria at all.  This results in a huge improvement in returns during market crashes preventing whipsaws and simplifies the system as a whole (no more bracket orders, just straight up buy orders and limit orders to sell). In my analysis, the risk of a $10B plus company's stock crashing 50% below our already reduced bottom feeder buy prices and not recovering to some extent is low and has never occured for our picks based on the backtests, without a nice buyout anyways.  In my backtests, the benefits of removing the stop loss orders heavily outweights the downside.

View user profile

19 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sun May 17, 2015 5:20 pm

Yeah, might be worth play with delayed entries.....
Something else I have been thinking about is....the 50% down auto sale....
Seems like your tests never had a 50% down and out hit right?
Still that number causes me anxiety... Do you think it is possible to know what the lowest and ave. drop of stock within the system was?

View user profile

20 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sun May 17, 2015 9:42 pm

I think that the only time that the -50% ever hits was during the market crash in 2008. A whole string of -50%'ers that year. But most of them recovered pretty quickly to a more bearable -20% to -30%, except AIG (yikes!). Hopefully, we don't have a huge market crash in the near future, but if it occurs, I'll just keep buying stocks at hugely depressed prices if it does come. I really only trade about 1/3 of my funds in individual stocks. The rest is in Index funds (VTI and BND mostly), and that BND money in particular will come in handy in a crash.

View user profile

21 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon May 18, 2015 9:01 am

I've also seen some overall market indicators out there that might be worth throwing into the system to prevent 2008 type crashes.  Concerned about whipsaws though. 

As an aside, I'm thinking the end game of this forum (possibly 6 months to maybe a year and a half from now) will be a Universal portfolio with sound money management, including large caps, small caps, commodities, index funds, speculation, occasional day trades, and even some bonds for safety.  Possibly, the TGMBFS no longer exists by itself, but evolves into the Ten Greedy Men Universal Portfolio some day.  For example, it may be a portfolio as follows:

Bonds (20-80% of portfolio)
Stock Index Funds (20-50%)
Large Cap Individual Stocks (20-50%)
Small Cap Stocks (10-30%)
Commodities 3x (0-10%)
Day Trade/Speculative (0-5%)

where they are all tied together somehow. 

Orders may be something like:
Sell BND(1).  Use these funds to buy IBM(1) and SALE(1)
Sell VTI(3).  Use these funds to buy UGAZ(2)
Sell IBM(1,2,3), APPL(1,2,3), SALE(1,2,3), GPS(1)...  Buy BND(1,2,3,4,5,6,...) - market correction risk is high

View user profile

22 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon May 18, 2015 9:48 am

That's a grand plan....I am currently about 60% invested in stocks that have been picked by BFS or my own research (sometimes overlapping).....I plan to hold for about 1 mo. to see what is really going to happen. I'm hoping for some quick success in order to cover buy-downs for those that fall and warrant reinvestment....

View user profile

23 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon May 18, 2015 12:47 pm

Nothing really that close to triggering, but current watchlist:

AMAT - less than 3% drop needed to trigger a buy.
HES - less than 3% drop needed to trigger a buy.

View user profile

24 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon May 18, 2015 4:07 pm

At the bell - Decent day for the TGMBFS at 0.79% returns, about 2.6x the 0.30% returns of the S&P500 index:

PXD +1.95%
HOG +0.84%
NBL +0.51%
WMF -1.08%
MU +1.75%

Hopefully, many more good days ahead.

View user profile

25 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Tue May 19, 2015 11:19 am

TGMBFS taking a beating today with the energy sector getting hit.  Hopefully, just temporary.

View user profile

Sponsored content


View previous topic View next topic Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 4]

Go to page : 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum