TGMBFS Discussion Thread

APA, KORS, and HES on the candidate list, but need to drop a little to trigger.

It is cheating a little, but anyone opposed to picking GMCR for the system, even though it is still active in the historical account?

APA on watchlist < 1% drop needed to trigger buy.
AMAT and KORS <3% drop neeed to trigger buy.

A few minutes before the bell: 

Ok day today for the TGMBFS.  S&P 500 index down slightly, TGMBFS up about a quarter percent.

Doesn't make up for yesterday's fiasco, but cuts the loss a little.

Kind of wishing I jumped in on GMCR, but in another way, if I do so, I should not call it a system pick.  Although it shows up on the scan, since it was still an active pick from the last 6 months (see historical system thread), the rule is that I can't pick it again until the position closes.  Going to stick to the rules. In 6 months, won't be an issue anyways since all the historical positions will be closed by then.

NTAP just showed up big time on the scans.  Curious if it holds till market close to become an official pick.  Note - the TGMBFS does not care about fundamentals/news.  The system does not care why NTAP is dropping.

I have some Stocktwitters asking why I am making certain TGMBFS picks.  My answer is that I am not.  I think, feel, sleep, worry, read news, study fundamentals, go to the bathroom, etc. 

Listen, and understand. TGMBFS is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until your account grows to the point when you will be financially secure.

Watching investors use the system, it is suddenly so clear. TGMBFS will never stop. It will never leave them, and it will never hurt them, never shout at them, or get drunk and hit them, or say it was too busy to spend time with them. It would always be there. And it would die, to protect them. Of all the would-be fathers who came and went over the years, this thing, this machine, was the only one who measured up. In an insane world, it was the sanest choice.

Yes, all T2 references, haha!

Note that since the TGBFS has had 5 stocks in it, it has returned +0.50% only (not including today's result, which is looking pretty good).   But, that said, the S&P 500 index has returned only +0.16%.  Very small samply size obviously, but so far TGMBFS outperforming S&P 500 index by 3.1x.  That said, closed trades matter more in the system than day to day results.

Here is our watchlist for today so far:

NTAP - so far, meets scan results - likely tomorrow morning purchase.
AAL, APA  <2% drop needed to meet criteria

NTAP it is. Look for limit order in Main system thread later after I do system spreadsheet.

Good call on ntap...up .74

As a human, I would have never made that pick. News/analysts articles were all screaming no, which would have swayed me. TGMBFS is a computer program and didn't have to worry about those things.

S&P 500 index returns today: -0.22%  
TGMBFS returns today: +0.75%

Only counts when we sell though.

No new picks or changes to the orders this weekend. Next time to check back will be Tuesday night.

Target price on WFM will be adjusted Tuesday night assuming it doesn't go bonkers and hit current target during the day on Tuesday.

Keep eyes on NTAP, MU and HOG as they get closer to targets. Don't forget to set limit orders to sell per the main thread.

Midday update, taking a beating, but still way better that the S&P 500 index. As of the time of this posting, TGBFS down -0.45% and the S&P 500 down -0.95%, a +0.50% delta. Still down, but over time, these deltas over the S&P 500 index add up.

AAL and FCX top candidates. See how they close the day.

FCX and AAL are confirmed picks. Watch for orders later tonight in the main thread.

Brutal Day:

TGBFS: -0.77%

Only Saving Grace:

S&P 500 Index: -1.03%

Delta: TGMBFS: +0.26% over S&P 500 Index

Yep. It was a brutal day....

Question....why did the sell target for WFM change? What was its original buy price?

I know you changed the rules on the use of stops, but are the 2nd and 3rd buy rules still the same?

First 2 targets for the TGMBFS picks are basically hoping for fast gains, 10% in 2-1/2 weeks and 15% in a month. Basically gives the picks a couple chances at a quick turnaround from the "bottoms". If those don't pan out, we have a longer term less than 6 months 20% target.

It really is a probabilties game (future results may not be the same as past results, of course):

1. about 25% chance a pick will reach 10%+ in first 2-1/2 weeks. This results in an annualized return of about 200%+ for these picks. 52 weeks/2.5weeks x 10% = 208% (and note that most picks in this category reach 10% before the 2-1/2 weeks, so greater annualized returns).

2. about another 5% chance that a pick will reach 15%+ in the first month. Those picks result in an annualized return of about 180%.

These first 2 categories are really what pulls the overall returns up heavily.

3. another 25% chance a pick will reach 20% returns in 6 months = 40% annualized returns.

This 3rd category still does pretty good at 2-4x the S&P 500 index.

4. Another 30% chance a pick that didn't reach any of the above targets will have some sort of postitive returns ranging from 0-20%.

Category 4 pretty much just keeps pace with the S&P 500 index.

5. and about 15% of picks will result in some sort of loss.

6. This category is additional buys - these have the main goal of mitigating some/all of the losses in category 5, and have the added bonus of adding to gains for stocks that turn around.

So short answer, WFM reached 2-1/2 weeks since bought without reaching first target. And yes, the 2nd and 3rd buys are the same rules as before.

Also WFM bought at 43.26 on my brokerage account, pretty close to the opening price on 8-MAY-2015, the morning after the pick was made.  I think the actual opening price was a few pennies above this, but same difference.

I could use the actual opening price if that is desired by the group.

Questions for the group:  

1.  Would it be useful to include dividends in the returns once they sell?  Right now, I am only including share prices.  With dividends, returns would be better obviously.

2.  Is the inclusion of commissions useful, or should I just leave that out since everyone has a different rate anyways and chooses different positions sizes?  They don't make too much difference for the $5,000 positions, but they would make more of a difference for $1,000 positions for instance.  I noticed that most other websites that have model portfolios exclude them.  This would keep returns to nice even 10%, 15%, 20% numbers if they hit target prices.  Numbers would be more irregular for gap ups and for those picks that go the whole 6 months.

3. Would it be preferred if I use actual opening prices or the prices that my brokerage actually buys at? My brokerage is a little slow and tends to buy a few pennies up or down.

Early report. TGMBFS positive today, but lagging the S&P 500 index by about a quarter percent, cancelling out yesterday's delta. Hopefully, it picks up today.