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TGMBFS Discussion Thread

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51 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Wed May 27, 2015 11:07 am

Some performance information. Since the TGMBFS has held at least 5 stocks on 15-MAY-2015, the open to the open the following day performance (I used open to open instead of closing price since we buy at open) of the TGMBFS vs. the S&P 500 index:

15-MAY-2015:
TGMBFS: +0.45%
S&P 500 Index: -0.04%
Delta: +0.49%

18-MAY-2015:
TGMBFS: +0.63%
S&P 500 Index: +0.38%
Delta: +0.25%

19-MAY-2015:
TGMBFS: -0.86%
S&P 500 Index: -0.08%
Delta: -0.78%

20-MAY-2015:
TGMBFS: 0.28%
S&P 500 Index: -0.11%
Delta: +0.39%

21-MAY-2015:
TGMBFS: 0.46%
S&P 500 Index: 0.23%
Delta: +0.23%

22-MAY-2015:
TGMBFS: 0.50%
S&P 500 Index: -0.24%
Delta: +0.74%

26-MAY-2015:
TGMBFS: -0.42%
S&P 500 Index: -0.95%
Delta: +0.53%

Total Delta: +1.85%

Not huge, but it has only been since 15-MAY since the TGMBFS has held 5 or more stocks. Very small sample size obviously, but on pace to beat the S&P 500 index by 66.96% - haha! That would be nice. (252 trading days per year/7 trading days * 1.85% = 66.96% above S&P 500 index).

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52 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Wed May 27, 2015 11:19 am

KORS, APA, and HES showing up on the scan. Awaiting for confirmation at COB (close of business). Nothing else getting close so far.

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53 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Wed May 27, 2015 11:37 am

I will also add another line into the system thread indicating the purchase price of each position.

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54 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 28, 2015 10:26 am

Well, the S&P 500 index kicked our butts from yesterday's open until today's open.

TGMBFS: +0.34%
S&P 500 Index: 0.81%
Delta: -0.47%

Hopefully, we get some of that back.

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55 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 28, 2015 10:45 am

Keep an eye on MU, got within $0.56 of triggering a sell at 10% profits.

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56 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 28, 2015 11:18 am

Midday report:

Oh well - the new buys of the day pretty much cancelling each other out today so far, but slightly positive.

APA bought at 60.53, now down $1 from there, -1.63%.
KORS bought at 45.61, now up $0.94 from there, 2.06%

Overall today:
TGMBFS: -0.2%
S&P 500 index: -0.4%

Making up some of the delta from yesterday, but still early.

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57 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 28, 2015 11:43 am

Pretty much the only stock coming close on the scan today is HES.

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58 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 28, 2015 1:59 pm

LUV also getting closer to showing up on the scans. Needs to drop about 3% though.

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59 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Thu May 28, 2015 6:15 pm

No new picks for tomorrow's open. Came close on HES.

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60 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Fri May 29, 2015 9:55 am

Open 28-May to open 29-May:

TGMBFS: -0.29%
S&P 500 index: -0.08%
Delta:  -0.21%

Since 15-MAY (since active system held 5 stocks or more), system is beating the S&P 500 index by +1.17%.  Took a hit last 2 days.  Hopefully, better week coming up.

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61 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Fri May 29, 2015 2:38 pm

Another crappy day for the market so far. TGMBFS beat the S&P 500 Index by a healthy daily margin (0.3% or so), but still down a little (-.2% or so). Even though the system beat the index, negative returns for the day kind of sucks. Will post open to open results Monday after open - with some luck, maybe it will turn postive in after hours or premarket. I don't think any new picks for Monday morning, but we still have an hour and a half to go.

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62 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 30, 2015 8:30 am

Only change for Monday's open will be a target price adjustment. Will post later.

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63 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 30, 2015 9:38 pm

Vb, remind me again, please...why these revisions take place?

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64 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sat May 30, 2015 9:58 pm

StLBill wrote:Vb, remind me again, please...why these revisions take place?

Just a time based price revision, PXD was originally purchased on 12-MAY and had a 10% profit target for 2-1/2 weeks since purchase (18 calendar days). It didn't get there, so now it has a 15% profit target of 4 weeks since purchase (28 calendar days). If it doesn't hit that, it goes to the 20% 6 month target, which gives the stock a more generous amount of time to hit that target. The first 2 targets are basically hoping for quick pops.

This thread sort of explains it:

http://10gm.forumotion.com/t51-strategy-time-based-profit-targets#290

If the system wasn't so automated, I'd eyeball the charts and determine more specific targets for each pick, but just keeping it simple with the 10/15/20% targets.

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65 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Sun May 31, 2015 7:24 am

Yeah, sorry, I knew that....just wasn't thinking about the time-based adjustments....

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66 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:31 am

A look ahead:
Target for NBL changes to 52.26 for tomorrow's open.
Target for HOG and MU changes to 62.94 and 30.51 for Wednesday's open.

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67 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:33 am

Open to open results (we use open to open instead of close to close since our initial entries are at open, not close) from open 29-MAY to open 1-JUN:

TGMBFS: -0.18%
S&P 500 Index: -0.57% (2120.66 to 2108.64)
Delta: +0.39%
Total Delta since TGMBFS held at least 5 stocks: +1.56%

Hopefully, we have a better week and get above +2.5% delta. It would be nice to see this climb 3%, 4%, 5%, etc. over the coming summer months.

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68 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 12:37 pm

Just some lunchtime performance numbers for TGMBFS:

TGMBFS: -0.09%
S&P 500 Index: +0.08%

Lagging, but nothing significant at this point. Hopefully turns around. Looks like KORS is doing pretty good at 2.25% and MU having a 1% day so far. PXD and AAL hanging around +0.5%. Need the energy/metals/software laggards to pick up the pace.

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69 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 12:39 pm

and as usual, HES on the watchlist as a potential pick. Never seems to just make it at the end of the day.

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70 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:01 pm

Also MRO is getting closer as a potential pick as well. Nothing on the radar though other than HES and MRO now.

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71 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:04 pm

I have no idea why AAL just went bonkers, but I like it. Hopefully it sticks.

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72 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:29 pm

AAL went up another percent, but appears to have strong resistance at $44 - hopefully she breaks though for a quick 3 day 10% with our 45.82 target in TGMBFS.  

Edit - and there she goes, $44.25, but getting close to the end of the trading day. With some luck, some after hours action will take us to our target.

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73 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:15 pm

Looks like HES is our new pick. Will confirm later (stockfetcher scans have a delay so I usually wait until 6PM to be safe) and post in the main thread.

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74 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:30 am

Good day for FCX (6%+). KORS, HOG also 2% ish.
Busy with kids today, but will post updates today/early tomorrow morning.

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75 Re: TGMBFS Discussion Thread on Tue Jun 02, 2015 1:53 pm

Wow, quick peak in. Looks like banner day for TGMBFS. As I type, FCX 6.25% , PXD 3.06%, HOG 2.53%, NBL 2.35%, KORS 1.68%, APA 1.49%, HES 1.06%, NTAP 0.62%, WFM 0.39%. S&P 500 Index 0.27%.

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