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Ten Greed Small Cap Portfolio Discussion

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Virginiabob

Virginiabob

as a side note, i think the financial sector and energy sectors are the place to be for the foreseeable future.  I'm liking that the small cap system appears to be bank heavy and the large cap system appears to be energy heavy.

Warren Buffet has the same line of thinking on banks and energy:

"What stocks does Warren Buffett think will do well in a correction? Since the second quarter of 2012, Berkshire Hathaway has increased its holding in Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE/WFC) by 225%, American Express Company (NYSE/AXP) by 193%, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE/USB) by 21%, and The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE/BK) by 31%."

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12983119/1/buffett-and-billionaire-investors-look-to-oil-health-care-and-spinoffs-in-2015.html

It appears all the big boys, Buffet, Soros, Pualson, etc, are shedding off the consumer spending stocks, like J&J, Kraft, P&G.  Interesting.

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

I'll make a new thread for the system and we can keep this as the discussion thread. Everyone can add their picks and targets. We'll make this one more open for the team's ideas, and refine as it matures.

StLBill



Very interesting observations on the banking and energy sectors...gonna pay attention to this...

StLBill



Having not created an account, nor even fully understanding the criteria that you have selected (and printed) above, I am loath to think about taking over reins.....But I am very interested in all of this and may find my way to it yet.
Really appreciate all the time and effort you have put into this and the generosity of sharing it all....good man!

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

Here is the criteria - the first line keeps them to the safer small cap stocks - has to meet the stringent criteria to be placed in the S&P 600 Small Caps Index. Next 2 lines just Moving averages - below the short term, above the intermediate term. The next line keeps them to companies above $5B market cap - these stocks are really right on the line between being small cap and large cap - so I'm kind of cheating. If I go smaller, too many picks. The other way we can do it is to make the rest of the criteria more stringent in order to go with smaller cap stocks - for example add in "price crossed upper Bollinger band (10)". I just tried though and it loses money. Ha, it also loses money for "price crossed lower Bollinger band (10)". Hmm, not really liking that the picks I have really are sort of large caps.

show stocks where index is S&P 600 Small
Price crossed below the MA(5)
Price above the MA(20)
market cap above 5000

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

For now I think we'll just leave this system as an evolving system, with everyone making some picks until we get a better handle on it. The scan above works, but it really isn't small cap.

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

I ran this guy's criteria, and just awful:

http://www.winninginvesting.com/small_cap_screen.htm

do about 5x better just investing in index funds. Just interesting the stuff being spewed out there.

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

The more and more I look at this, I think I'll stick to paper trading small caps for awhile. Can't find any real good logic that works that great. I'll some picks in the thread though to track.

StLBill



Actually, I like the large cap BFS...which seems to have proven or at least tested positive results.

I have a question about large cap BFS, but will bring it up in that forum...

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

thinking Lumber Liquidators as an add as a small cap pick.  Will let it play out today first and decide later tonight.

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

CRR pretty close to triggering sell at 20% profit.

Virginiabob

Virginiabob

Wow, only a dime from triggering sell. Close, but no cigar. In retrospect, I was just playing around, but unrealized gains on this system pretty good for about a half month at 3%.

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