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3x leveraged funds trading system

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1 3x leveraged funds trading system on Thu Jul 02, 2015 12:04 pm

Coming soon...



Last edited by Virginiabob on Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:44 am; edited 1 time in total

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2 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:24 am

Still a work in progress. In the preliminary stages on the nomenclature to describe signals, etc. but basically here is how this is going to work.  This is a price action signal and the probability of success is given by the score from 1 to 10, the higher the score, the higher the chance of success.  With enough cash, any score can be profitable.   It is assumed you will double down on the number of shares as the score increases.  For example, if you enter on a score 3 at 1000 shares, you would buy 2000 shares once it hits a score of 4, and 4000 shares when it hits a score of 5, etc.   So if you started at 1 with 1000 shares, you would be buying 512,000 shares at a score of 10.  That said, in most cycles, a score of 3 or 4 is the maximum actually reached.  You can also reduce the number of shares purchased by starting at score 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. before you make your initial purchase.

So you can decide which ETN to buy based on the score.  Say JNUG is at 6 and UWTI is at 2.  You might opt to buy JNUG since less risk.  That said, as stated earlier, this is a price action signal, not a fundamentals signal, so the user should take all that into consideration when making a decision.

More to follow...

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3 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:11 pm

To get started, I'm going to start with what we know, and add more funds later. Obviously, you can adjust the buy quantities and profit margins at your discretion, depending on your risk tolerance.

So here is the first set of signals for UGAZ:

UGAZ(3) Set buy limit order at 1.98. UGAZ(4) buy signal to follow would be $1.73.
UGAZ sell signal at 2.33, which would adjust to 2.10 if UGAZ(4) above executes.

For tutorial purposes, what this means is that you would buy a quadruple position of UGAZ at 1.98, if you decided that you want to start with score 1 to make your purchases. UGAZ(1) would have been a single position at 2.45. UGAZ(2) would have been a double position at 2.21. If you chose to not buy at UGAZ(1) or UGAZ(2), then UGAZ(3) would be your first position, and you can choose to use a single position here (if you decide that you are starting at score 3). Since you skipped buying at UGAZ(1) or UGAZ(2), you can also adjust your sell price downward if you would like. I'd recommend to take those profits at 10%, so with 1.98 buy signal, you would sell at 2.18, if UGAZ(4) never executes.

Confusing enough? Hopefully, it will get clearer as this moves along and the nomenclature improves. Please ask questions as needed. I'll split this out into separate discussion and system threads once this gets more established, but for now, ask anything here.

Also, I'll be looking at UWTI, etc. and adding more and more varied funds as this moves forwards.



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4 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:51 pm

Ok, so here we go, both UWTI and UGAZ. Right now, UWTI slightly better risk based on price action only.

UGAZ(3) Set buy limit order at 1.98. UGAZ(4) buy signal to follow would be $1.73.
UGAZ sell signal at 2.33, which would adjust to 2.10 if UGAZ(4) above executes.

UWTI(4) Set buy limit order at 2.63. UWTI(5) buy signal to follow would be $2.25.
UWTI sell signal at 3.19, which would adjust to 2.82 if UGAZ(5) above executes.

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5 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Fri Jul 03, 2015 2:18 pm

Might just take away the sell signal completely and the user would just have to determine their own sell targets.  10% profits above average cost is a suggestion, but you can sell at say 5% if less patient or at 20% if more risky.  They will vary heavily depending on when the buys started. Will keep for now and see how it goes.

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6 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Sat Jul 04, 2015 9:53 am

Here we go, in order of highest probability of payoff, based on price action score (not fundamentals).  Note that this only tells you the price action score of the next buy.  It does not tell you the score of your previous buys.  So far, your best bet would be to buy USLV at 14.53, if it goes that low, then following that would be UWTI at 2.63 (based on the futures, this is more the likely to trigger).  This is to be used for comparison purposes. If you were deciding to buy either USLV or UGLD, you would choose USLV, for example (if you are of the belief that price action is of the upmost importance, which is the basis for this system). More funds will be added shortly to this list (JNUG, NUGT).  

USLV(5) Set buy limit order at 14.53
UWTI(4) Set buy limit order at 2.63.
UGAZ(3) Set buy limit order at 1.98.
UGLD(3) Set buy limit order at 9.70.
RUSS(3) Set buy limit order to 28.89

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7 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:48 am

Looks like the gold miners are hot buys, but doubt they get that low.  

JNUG(6) Set buy limit order at 13.80
NUGT(6) Set buy limit order at 7.10
USLV(5) Set buy limit order at 14.53
DGAZ(5) Set buy limit order at 4.78
UWTI(4) Set buy limit order at 2.63.
TZA(4) Set buy limit order at 7.73.
UGAZ(3) Set buy limit order at 1.98.
UGLD(3) Set buy limit order at 9.70.
RUSS(3) Set buy limit order at 28.89
FAS(3) Set buy limit order at 27.73
FAZ(3) Set buy limit order at 10.03
TNA(3) Set buy limit order at 79.20
DWTI(2) Set buy limit order at 67.73.

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8 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Tue Jul 07, 2015 8:51 am

Oil literaly smashed through 2 supports:

UWTI(7) Set buy limit order at 1.87.
UGAZ(4) Set buy limit order at 1.73.

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9 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Tue Jul 07, 2015 12:57 pm

I wanted to show an example of how this system works. Let's say you started at a limit order of UWTI(4) at 2.63. You would buy, say, 1000 shares at $2.52 due to the gap down at open. Then when UWTI(5) hit at 2.25, you would buy 2,000 shares. So you would currently be sitting on 3000 shares at an average of 2.34 and would plan to sell these at 2.57 (10% profit 1.1*2.34=2.57). The other possibility is that you would buy another 4,000 shares at 1.87.

So basically the formula works like this:

1. Pick a point to start buying. This is up to you depending on how much cash you have on hand. Use all limit orders for subsequent buys.
2. Buy double the shares you purchased in step 1 when it goes down 10% from position 1.
3. Buy double the shares you purchased in step 2 when it goes down 20% from position 1.

etc. etc.

4. Keep track of your average cost.
5. Sell at 10% above that average cost (with limit order).

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10 Re: 3x leveraged funds trading system on Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:08 pm

Just a note that I will be heavily simplifying this system shortly and just simply adding buy and sell signals.

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