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Virginiabob's portfolio discussion and trade record

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Virginiabob wrote:Sold BBY too early at 36.74. bought at 34.82.  186 shares.  $353.12 profit.
Sold INTC probably too early at 32.49.    Bought at 31.00, 216  shares.  $317.84 profit.
Bought 13 shares PXD at 152.96 (TGMBFS pick).

In 30 minutes after hindsight, these were excellent sells at open. Both down about a percent below what I sold them at. Probably would be good buys now if one believes that these will run.

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Sold off final UGAZ shares at 2.72 from 2.05 average. $646 profit.

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Just a journal entry:

You know what I am realizing - something I am doing with investing must be about right. It seems like I make a ton of mistakes, sell stuff too early, sell stuff too late, buy falling knives, etc., but none of it really matters. Still beating the overall market by about 5-6x the S&P 500 index easy. I feel like I'm screwing up left and right, but it doesn't really matter. Sure, I was really lucky with a few stocks (NFLX, FSLR 30%), but I was also really unlucky with a few (LF, RUSS). None of it mattered. What i am thinking though is that if the S&P 500 has a good year, say 30%, I will not be 4-5x the returns, 150-180% would be crazy. It is probably easier when the returns of the S&P are 2%. But I could see being 2x the returns or more.

I think it is really all about buying stocks using value principles. The S&P 500 index tracks both underpriced and overpriced stocks. By buying the underpriced stocks, you will clearly beat the index returns by a factor of 2x+. It also has a side benefit during major market corrections. If you buy stocks that are already beat down, they don't have the "room" to correct as much as the stocks that are way up high.

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Just for future lookback, here is a look at my active trading account YTD performance:

Virginiabob's portfolio discussion and trade record - Page 2 Perfor11

As you can see, I started at $117,714.93, added $2,515.52 and gained $13,115.64.  So calculating it as a percentage, hard to do exactly because of the contributions, but basically:  13,115/117.714 * 100 = 11.1% right now. What a crappy March though!

The S&P 500 index, on the other hand, has gained about 2%.  [2099 (today's price) - 2058 (dec 31 close price)]/2058 *100 = 2%

11.1%/2% = 5.5x

So I'm about 5.5x the S&P 500 index, give or take.

I don't expect this to continue.  If the S&P 500 returns 30% this year, I'll settle for 2x.  Haha!

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Regret of the day: Not buying silver or gold. Was waiting for the too perfect entry.

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Bought NBL at open 44 shares, 45.44.  TGMBFS pick.  

Although the TGMBFS picked MU, I will not be buying it since I already hold a position anyways - bought at 28.08. If you buy this pick using the TGMBFS, you are buying it about a $1.50 lower than I did, so you would do better than me.

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Selling off T, UPS, MRK, HSY, and IBM tomorrow morning.  About $1500 profit total.  Will post actual after complete. Just some safe large cap taking profit moves. A bunch of dividends out of these involved as well.

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All at open:

5 sales, $1,995.99 profit

IBM sold 31.21 shares at 173.75 from 158.41 on 1/13 (31 shares plus earned dividend), $4 commissions, $508.03 profit
MRK sold 122.948 shares at 59.96 from 56.78 on 4/8 (122 shares, plus earned dividend), $4 commissions, $440.80 profit
HSY sold 76 shares at 96.02 from 92.31 on 5/1, $4 commissions, $277.96 profit
UPS sold 72 share at 102.00 from 96.29 on 4/16, $4 commissions, $407.12 profit
T sold 216.89 shares at 34.11 from 32.86 on 3/12 (214 shares + dividend), $4 commissions,$362.08 profit

1 purchase:

HOG bought 36 shares at 54.73

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Might buy some VIAB and GPS if they don't gap up this morning.  Earnings plays.

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Haven't been keeping up with this thread, since most of my trades posted in the TGMBFS thread and the 3x commodities ETN threads, but just wanted to note that I bought some FSLR and URI at open today.

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Just a note that I have recently moved about 25% of my entire portfolio into a bond fund position and may move even more in the future. This does not affect the amount that I will be swing trading since it is a shift from my VTI holdings to BND (so basically one index fund to another versus shifting my trading funds). I have accumulated a lot over the last few years and this is my protection plan. I am thinking a market crash is getting closer and closer, but obviously I don't have the crystal ball, so this is my ammunition if that occurs. For example, market crashes 50%, I buy back into VTI, then when it gets back to current levels (hopefully!), I would have doubled my money on 25% of my portfolio) in addition to recovering everything else, plus the gains made on additional savings amounts.

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Dumping my google this morning, (GOOG not GOOGL, didn't even know the difference when I bought them).  Bought at $497.85, but only 10 shares.  $600+ profits anyways.  Can't complain.  Probably skyrockets to $900 over next 30 days, haha!

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And there she goes, as expected. I'm starting to get the feeling that my life is a game for the amusement of the gods.

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Sold my CREE off today for minimal gain (about $90 profit).

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